"Comprehensive Approach": A Holistic Approach of Trend Analysis Derived Through Review and It's Application to Rainfall over All India and Seven Homogenous Regions of India
Author : Ganesh D. Kale*
Download the book : “Artificial Intelligence and Water Resource Development”(adv)
*Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat, India. Email: gdk@ced.svnit.ac.in
Abstract
One of the most severe problems present day world facing is climate change. Thus, proper assessment of impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic variables and consequently on the society are essential. Kundzewicz and Robson (2004) have given method for statistical analysis of change and it is modified in the present work to derive a robust method called as Comprehensive Approach (CA) that further addresses research gaps identified through reviewed literature. The CA is employed for the trend analyses in rainfall of seven homogeneous regions and all India corresponding to temporal scales viz. annual, monthly and seasonal for the three time intervals 1901 to 2003, 1948 to 2003 and 1970 to 2003. Trend analyses results shown presence of statistically significant trends in: 1) Peninsular India region's winter rainfall TS (1901-2003) having negative trend, 2) North West India and Central North East India regions pre-monsoon rainfall TS (1948-2003) having positive trends, 3) West Central India region's monsoon rainfall TS (1948-2003) having negative trend, 4) North East India (NEIND) region's August month rainfall TS (1901-2003) and June month rainfall TS (1948-2003) having negative trends. Also, in pre-monsoon rainfall TS (1948-2003) of five homogeneous regions, regionally significant trend is detected.