Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation, Maximum and Minimum Temperature Changes Using Multi-Model Ensemble: A Case Study of Radhanagari Dam, India

Authors : Jarpala Venkatesh* and Dr.Ganesh D. Kale**

*Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology,Surat, 395007, Gujarat, India

**Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology,Surat-395007, Gujarat, India.

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of 27 NASA-NEX-GDDP CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) in replicating precipitation (Pr), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) over the catchment of Radhanagari Dam, India. The compromise programming (CP) and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are employed to identify the best-performing GCMs. The MIROC6, ACCESS-ESM1-5, CanESM5 are the top-performing models for Pr, Tmax, and Tmin based on TOPSIS and CP techniques. The top 5 performing GCMs for each of these aforesaid climatic variables are then used to develop multi-model ensembles (MMEs) by employing reliability ensemble averaging technique to project Pr, Tmax, and Tmin under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) for three future periods.The results show that the developed MME have shown superior performance as compared to individual GCMs. Projections indicate an increase in annual Pr and Tmin for all three future periods under SSP245 and SP585 scenarios. Tmax is projected to decrease in the near future period, but increase in the mid and far future periods under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The projected climatic variables under SSP245 and SSP585 can be utilized in hydrological models to project the future streamflow in the basin.

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